Costs of forest carbon sequestration in the presence of climate change impacts

Abstract Forests play a critical role in mitigating climate change, and, at the same time, are predicted to experience large-scale impacts of change that will affect efficiency forests mitigation efforts. Projections future carbon sequestration potential typically do not account for changing economic costs timber and agricultural production land use change. We integrated dynamic forward-looking optimization model global with results from vegetation meta-analysis on crop yields project forests. find direct forests, represented by changes dieback forest growth, indirect effects due lost productivity, together result net gain 17 Gt C aboveground storage 2000 2100. Increases climate-driven growth rates an 81%–99% reduction reaching range stock targets 2100, while increases projected raise 57%–132%. When combined, these two expected reduce more than 70%. Inclusion third, impact through yields, resulting expansion cropland, raises 11%–38% widens uncertainty range. While we cannot rule out possibility increasing costs, central outcomes simultaneous agriculture 64%–86% reductions costs. Overall, suggest concerns about driven should inhibit ambitions policy makers expanding forest-based solutions.